Gregory Harbin, Foreigner

I’m not going to gloat, but yeah, I was right about the election. Looks like my map was correct, except that Obama has won Indiana, and he might win Omaha’s electoral vote. I underestimated Obama’s ground game, so, kudos to him. The electoral math looks like 365-163, and a popular vote of 52-46. Not a landslide of Biblical proportions, but he got more of the country to vote for him than Clinton or Bush 43 ever did.

I’m still waiting on final popular vote figures to make this calculation, but I would not be surprised if we discover that Barack Obama received a greater proportion of the voting-age population than any other candidate in recent history, if not ever. I’ll get back to you.

The questions right now, as I’m solidly in the evening, and America is in its morning after, are the Minnesota, Georgia, and Alaska Senate races.

It appears that Al Franken has pulled out a victory in MN, with 99% of precincts reporting, he’s leading 1,065 votes out of 2 301 247. That’s an incredibly close one, and it could really go either way. I’m watching it very closely.

In Georgia, Republican Saxby Chambliss needs 50% to avoid a dangerous runoff. He has it right now, with 99% of precincts reporting, but just barely. If that shifts, we could see that seat move.

It looks like Ted Stevens has won the election to keep his Senate seat in Alaska, despite his recent felony conviction. Obviously, despite his maniacal statements, the man cannot stay in Washington, so a vote for him was simply a vote to keep a Republican in the office. The question I’m hearing on cable is, “can Sarah Palin appoint herself?” The answer is no, she can’t, it’s illegal in Alaskan law for the governor to appoint Senators. But I think she would have no problem getting herself appointed to the seat, and I think she very much wants. I can’t imagine that she’ll be Minority Leader, but she’ll certainly have a major role in the ‘Loyal Opposition.’

Gregory Barack Obama, Politics Barack Obama, Election, Sarah Palin, ted stevens

A few maps for you going into the weekend before the election. As I called months ago, it appears that Obama’s going to breeze to victory. The first map is a whole-hog ‘best case’ scenario for Obama. This includes the idea that pollsters are radically underselling Democratic turnout in states like West Virginia. This is a Nixon-esque sweep, the chance of which happening I place around 5%.

The second map is a more likely best case scenario. This one is supported by current polls, but is still fairly unlikely. I’d say this exact map or better is something like 10% possible.

The third map is what I consider the ‘worst case’ for Obama. It includes McCain picking up most of the tossup states, and Obama reduced to only the states he’s currently up HUGE in the polls.

Now, this next map is brought to us by Rasmussen Reports, who just now put out this report on the current state of the election. In this report, they give the election to Obama 364-184. But more interestingly, they say
“These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.” So, I took their map, and removed any state they considered ‘close.’ Obama still wins the election with 273 electoral votes. Here’s that map:

The last map is my own personal map, just based on my feeling from current polls, the ground game, and the overall movement of the country. Feel free to consider this ‘Gregory’s Official Prediction.’ Unless something huge happens over the weekend, this is how I’m calling it.

K, bonus time.

SENATE PREDICTIONS
Alaska: Belich (D) [Stevens can't win post-conviction, and Rasmussen's new poll confirms that]
Minnesota: Coleman (R) [I really think the Barkley voters are going to break for Coleman]
North Carolina: Hagen (D) [Dole's campaign was too little, too late, and this is a good time to be 1. not an incumbent and 2. a Democrat]
Georgia: Martin (D) [I agree with FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver that undecided blacks are going to vote for the Democrat]
Kentucky: McConnell (R) [Ignore what I just said about incumbents and Democrats]
Mississippi: Musgrove (R) [Ditto]

So I’m predicting a 57(+2)—41 Senate. Oh, and Hayes will lose to Kissell. That one’s free.

Gregory Barack Obama, Politics Barack Obama, Election, John McCain, Politics

So here’s the election as it currently looks, giving the benefit of close swing states to McCain:

Nightmare scenario. A 269/269 goes basically to Obama, but it means weeks of lawsuits.

The question here is whether or not Obama can turn one of the following—what I’m calling—’Tipping Point States.’ These are Nevada (47.2 JM/45.7 BO), Ohio (47.6/44.7), Virginia (47.9/46.9), North Carolina (47.6/44.3), Florida (48.4/45), and New Hampshire (47.6/46.4). If he can turn just one of them, Obama gets a win. All of them, and it’s a virtual landslide.

(the poll numbers—which I don’t particularly agree with—come from 10pm, 9/24/08, http://www.pollster.com)

Gregory Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics Barack Obama, Election, John McCain, Politics

I got called by a pollster over the weekend, wondering if A. I would be voting for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton on the May 6th Primary, and B. From a scale of 1-5, how likely was I to vote in said primary.

I have yet to see the results of the poll, but if anyone knows of NC Primary polls being taken out of South Carolina over the weekend and knows where to find the results, I’d love to see them.

What’s weird about this is that I always complain about how false polls must be, since I’ve never been contacted by a pollster. But here I was, at home, the exact demo to be called, and I was called. So maybe the things do work after all.

Gregory Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Polls Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Polls

I’ll have more on this topic later tonight, but for now, I’ll just let Barack tell you what he thinks about being Hillary’s VP:Barack Obama in Columbus

Gregory Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics

Today’s Wyoming caucus results show Clinton losing Wyoming by 23 points, wiping out half her net delegate gain on ‘Super Tuesday II’ in just one state.

It doesn’t matter how low the Clinton campaign lowers expectations, the media is slowly coming to the realization that Hillary cannot win the party’s nomination. Even giving her the benefit of the doubt on upcoming primaries, she will still lag behind Obama by at least 150 delegates come convention-time, and there’s no way the party leaders will override the will of the voters via the superdelegates.

It would be nice if Hillary would drop out when she loses Mississippi on Tuesday (some polls show her losing by as many as 25 points), but I expect a long, grueling Spring campaign ahead of us as Hillary refuses to acknowledge what the rest of us already know. One upshot, however, will be that Barack will probably make at least one stop in Charlotte come May. So, there’s that.

Gregory Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics

I put together my first electoral map, based on survey data from SurveyUSA which was released yesterday. Rather than assigning delegates in the states that were close, I went ahead and designated a ’swing state’ those which have undecided numbers that would put one or the other candidate over the top. With this metric, I have Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia as purples. After assigning the rest, I have Obama with 267 electoral votes, McCain with 139.

I expect Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina to be Obama’s main focuses, as they have very close margins, and any of the states would tip the electoral scales over the magic 270 number. McCain has a much harder battle, needing to win every single swing state to win.

There are of course unforeseen irregularities that could change this map, and I’m sure I’ll have to redraw it many times before November, but as of now, this is how it looks.

Gregory Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics Barack Obama, John McCain, Politics

OK, the press is reporting ‘Hillary’s Big Three Wins.’ Let’s be clear here. Hillary netted exactly four delegates. Four. That’s four (4). That’s fewer than Obama netted in ANY of the previous eleven contests, save the Virgin Islands, which had but three (3) delegates to give him.

Four delegates, people.

Also, she did not, let me repeat, Hillary Clinton did NOT win Texas. She barely edged him out in the primary, but lost by a large margin in the caucus. In the end, he’s getting 99 (ninety-nine) delegates to her 94 (ninety-four). That’s a net gain of five (5) for Obama. Again, bigger than her net at the end of her supposed big day.

She won exactly two states yesterday, both obvious Clinton strongholds, which she was winning by much higher margins only two weeks ago.

Out of the upcoming twelve (12) contests, she’s going to win exactly maybe two. 2. PA and West Virginia. Maybe.

It is over, Hillary Clinton Campaign. You made a good show of it, and I’m sure you’ll be a fine Senator once you stop running for President (although I’m not sure you know how to do that). Please, go back to New York, and help President Obama get his legislation through.

Lest anyone doubt that I know something of what I’m talking about, I’ll post my delegate projections again, this time with the new totals added in. After the 14 (fourteen) contests that that occurred since I started that list, I am now off by 11 delegates each way. To quote the great Emperor Palpatine, “Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.”

Gregory Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics

Selected songs from Radiohead’s 1997 masterwork “OK Computer,” examined as an allegory for the 2008 American Presidential election:

Airbag:

The “next World War” is our current War on Terrorism, and the unpopularity of the Iraq Invasion has led America to look for a ‘jack knifed juggernaut,’ a leader who stood up against the war even before it was unpopular. And so, “in an interstellar burst,” Barack Obama is here to save the Universe–or at least America.

In the deep, political ignorant sleep of the innocent–college students–Barack Obama is born again. Riding a fast bandwagon to success, he’s amazed that he’s still alive: an inexperienced minority senator running for the most powerful job in the world.

Paranoid Android:

“Please could you stop the noise,” Hillary Clinton is “trying to get some rest.” All these unborn chicken voices–”Yes We Can”–keep ringing in her head. When she is President, everyone who’s opposed her will go “against the wall.” Republican opposers of her Universal Heath Care plan, their opinions “are of no consequence at all.”

“You don’t remember–you don’t remember–why don’t you remember my name?” asks Hillary, unable to comprehend why name recognition isn’t giving her more success–she screams at the DNC “off with his head!”–until she realizes that Barack has been able to turn her record against her: “I guess he does.”

Now, Hillary needs anti-Barack sentiment to “rain down, rain down” in a steady stream. It won’t come from the grassroots, but from her position of power, she believes she can force it to come “from a great height, from a great height.”

“That’s it,” Barack. “You’re leaving.” American values–”the crackle of pig skins”, soccer moms networking about Barack’s supposed Muslim heritage, the panic, and the vomit–who will be there at 3 AM to pick up the phone at the White House? In desperation, Hillary cries out, “God loves his children!”

Karma Police:

High on 80% approval ratings after 9/11, George Bush commands the Karma/Anti-Terror Police: “Arrest this man” for picking up a copy of “The Anarchist’s Cookbook” at a local library. “He buzzes like a fridge, he’s like a detuned radio.” He just LOOKS like a terrorist, throw him in Gitmo. And who’s that with him? She looks like a terrorist–”her Hitler hairdo, it’s making me feel ill.” It looks like we’ve crashed an entire terrorist party. “This is what you get when you mess with me”–you’re either with us or you’re against us.

Four years later, he’s “given all I can,” but “it’s not enough.” His approval ratings in the low twenties, Bush is worn out. “I’ve given all I can,” but until 2009, he’s “still on the payroll.” Worried about his legacy, he stays the course. “This is what you get when you mess with us!” he screams. Fighting to control his press, he travels to Africa, where he has arguably done a lot of good. A stunned populace wonders when he had time to fix Africa, but Bush just smiles in relief. “Phew, for a minute there, I lost myself.”

Electioneering:

John McCain will “stop at nothing” to become President. Seemingly unable to appeal to both Moderates and Conservatives, McCain has begun electioneering. He says “the right things,” and hopes he can “rely on your vote.” In an impassioned plea, he promises to “go forwards,” if his supporters will only “go backwards,” and somewhere, in a mystical equilibrium that would secure 50.1% of the vote, “we will meet.”

“Riot shields, voodoo economics,” all the policies of McCain’s past, you need just ignore all that. It’s history. He’s against abortion! “I trust I can rely on your vote.” He supported the surge! “I trust I can rely on your vote.” He’s a war hero! “I trust I can rely on your vote.”

Gregory Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Music, Radiohead Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Music, Radiohead

• Obama is now winning by ten more delegates than I had predicted in my post-Super Tuesday prediction.
• He increased his lead over Clinton 54 delegates, a blow out by any standards.
• He is now (not including super delegates) 883 delegates away from the nomination.
• He would need to win 92% of the upcoming delegates to win without the use of super delegates. Including the super delegates already endorsing him, he would need to win 70% of upcoming delegates to reach the magic number of 2,025.
• Obama has won 53% of the delegates overall, and 66% since Super Tuesday. According to my predictions, which have been low, he will take 57% of the upcoming delegates.
• But assuming he takes half of the super delegates, as would be expected in a close race, he needs win only 47% of the upcoming delegates.
• Clinton, meanwhile, has won only 47% of the delegates so far, and only 34% since Super Tuesday. Note that she won only almost half of the pledged delegates on Super Tuesday, which she trumpeted as a win.
• Clinton would need to stop her slide, and even reverse it, to achieve 76% of upcoming delegates assuming her current super delegate count holds steady, or 60%, assuming she wins the support of half the super delegates.
• Did you understand all that? Then I promise you you are now more informed that most of the people on network television.

Gregory Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics